japan's future in three parts

Editor’s Note: Naotaka Matsukata is a senior policy adviser at Alston and Bird, LLP. He has served as Director of Policy Planning for the United States Trade Representative and Senior Policy Advisor to U.S. Senator Joseph I. Lieberman.
By Naotaka Matsukata – Special to CNN
Japan's history provides some important clues to how Japan will respond in the short, medium, and long term to crisis.  If history is a guide, recovery is certain and the progress will be rapid and eye-opening.
In the short term, this crisis provides an opportunity for Japan to come together politically, formulate agreed-upon policies and lay the foundation for stronger economic growth.

Before the crisis, Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s approval ratings were in the low 30s. The political order was stagnant. Over the past decade, the Japanese government has lost the confidence of the people.
This crisis will likely provide Kan with an opportunity to unify his own political party and the people of Japan. This is a chance for Japan’s government to restore some of the people’s confidence. If the Japanese people return some confidence to their government, it will increase the ability of the political leadership to make hard decisions on issues from immigration to the budget.
In the medium term, look at the U.S.-Japan relationship. For the last five years or more, Japan has been enormously concerned about its place in America’s orbit. The Japanese have asked: “Is the U.S. passing over Japan for China? Is Japan falling as a priority in U.S. foreign policy?”
America’s response to this crisis will be a measuring stick for Japan about U.S. commitment to their country. How closely does the United States cooperate with Japan in responding to the crisis?
In many respects, the relationship between Japan and the U.S. has been kind of like Jekyll and Hyde. On the one hand, you have had  efforts to cooperate on security issues despite clear, detailed problems that have come up time to time. On the economic front, there’s always a lot of friction in terms of the competitiveness of Japanese industries, its industrial policy and various other issues related to market access.
Does America pull back from pressuring Japan on Okinawa issues or other economic issues to let Japan come back and find its footing? What kind of pause takes place now? How much of the humanitarian issue takes center stage?
Over the long term, look at Japan’s international relationships. Japan has always been on the giving side of humanitarian assistance. Now it is on the receiving side. Does this bring Japan a greater awareness of global suffering? Will it make Japan a more integrated member of the global community?
When historians 100 years from now will put this event in the context of Japan's modern history of response and rebuilding after crisis, they will see it as just one more time the people of Japan have come together and made recovery a catalyst for reform and prosperity.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of Naotaka Matsukata.